Greetings, Roadies!
Many folks this year don’t like the idea of drafting at the end of round one. I am here to tell you that if you have the 1.12 in a 12-team league this weekend, it is not a death sentence for your draft and team. Let’s examine how you can dominate a draft at the 1.12 pick.
ROUNDS 1 & 2
*Draft Settings: PPR, Sleeper Draft. Roster: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX, K, Defense
At this turn, you can get two top-10 WRs, or it's a perfect combo opportunity to grab a top-10 WR and a top-tier running back to be your Hero-RB if you choose that route. I have Harrison Jr. over London and have no issues taking him as a WR1. There are over 200 targets vacated from the Cardinals from last year, and Kyler Murray is now two full years away from his knee injury. Saquon Barkley is an auto-pick for me at the first pick of round 2. Playing in the best offensive setup of his career should bring back that early-career upside he had. Don’t forget that D’Andre Swift had 14 rush attempts inside the five-yard line last year.
ROUNDS 3 & 4
At the end of round 3, you still have great options for your WR2. My WR target here would be DJ Moore or Malik Nabors. If you go with Harrison Jr. like I did in round 1, I would opt for the safer choice in Moore. In this year's drafts, I want one of the top-five TEs, and by the time your pick comes back at the end of round 5, you may see them wiped out. I have Kincaid as my TE2 this year, and he is worth a 4th round pick. With the departure of Diggs and Davis, Kincaid should be the leading target option for the Bills offense this year. In his last 11 games last year, Kincaid was a top-eight TE seven times.
ROUNDS 5-7
As predicted by the end of round 5, the top-tier TEs have been wiped out. Depending on your tiers of running backs, this may be the last chance to get your top RB2 in one of your tiers. That is the case with D’Andre Swift, who I took at the end of round 5. And in round 6, you can still take a WR1 on their respective team, like Rice or McLaurin, as your WR3. I have moved Rice up to WR17 as of now. From week 12 and on last year, Rice averaged over 17 fantasy points per game. You should still be able to grab a good QB1 at the end of round 7, which is the case with Murray slipping there. Last year, coming off his injury, Murray still had three top-10 finishes in seven games without throwing for more than 256 yards in any game. In most of these games, his leading receiver yardage-wise was either tight end Trey McBride or Greg Dortch. Murray’s top finish in fantasy points per game was in 2020, when he finished as the QB6. The addition of Harrison Jr. could put him back in that territory again.
ROUNDS 8-10
At the 8-9 turn, we still have a pocket of high-upside WRs (Johnson, JSN, Williams) and a good group of RBs who could be taken as an RB3. But this is where it is good to have positional tiers for your draft. Johnson, Williams, and JSN represent the last three in a high-upside tier of mine at the position, whereas I have a much larger tier of running backs in a tier to choose from for an RB3. Don’t forget that Adam Thielen had five top-20 WR finishes in his first six games last season and finished the year as a top-25 WR. Bryce Young will heavily target Johnson, who I think can perform as a WR2 most weeks. Williams has had glowing reports all throughout camp. Reports have stated the team has expanded his route tree, which should open him up to a much safer floor in PPR leagues this year. Sutton slipping to round 10 is a steal in any draft and should be an automatic pick, no matter what you already have at the position. He is the clear-cut WR1 on a team that shouldn’t see much decline in quarterback play this year. While it may be hard to duplicate the double-digit touchdowns, I think we will see an increase in catch volume from Sutton with Nix at quarterback.
ROUNDS 11-12
With this build of good wide receivers, this is a point to hammer the RB position with back-to-back picks. You will have a couple of strategies: high-floor picks or high-upside lottery tickets. I have moved up Hubbard in my ranks over the last week. Jonathan Brooks will miss the first four weeks and could be eased back into action when he returns. Hubbard had (8) top-25 RB finishes last year and will have a much better offense line and set of offensive weapons around him this year. The lottery tickets in round 12 consist of Jaylen Wright, Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allegier, and Ty Chandler. The higher floor choices are J.K. Dobbins, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Antonio Gibson. I had doubts earlier in the preseason, but we keep seeing reports that Dobbins has looked good enough to carve out a near 50/50 split in this Chargers backfield. I’ll bite on him in a heavy-rush offense.
ROUNDS 13-16
Save the last two rounds for your kicker and defense, always. The other two rounds will be one more positional player and most likely your backup QB in most leagues. Cooks is like Sutton, except he can be had even later in drafts. He is a solid value as a critical receiving option in an offense that looks like it will throw the ball more than 600 times this year. From week 8 on, Cooks was the WR15 in fantasy football. He also had his highest touchdown mark (eight) since 2016.
Roster
QB: Kyler Murray
RBs: Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift
WRs: Marvin Harrison Jr., D.J. Moore, Rashee Rice
TE: Dalton Kincaid
Flex: Diontae Johnson, Jameson Williams
K: Jason Meyers
D: Ravens
Bench: Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, Bo Nix
Each week we will release draft guide content to prepare you for your drafts. So make sure you are subscribed so you get this content delivered to your inbox. And as always…. Buckle Up!
-Fantasy Road Show
Saw you from Joey Wright's tweet then saw this article tweet tonight. Love this type of build piece and the other pieces on this site content wise. I always like hearing about newer fantasy show startups.